The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates, and it has not published any for 30th Celebration. What we do have, a week after the 16 September release, is thousands of English packs opened on camera and counted by collectors. Four separate counts agree closely. In an average English pack you get one of the 30 Pikachu, every time, and a better card beyond it a little over half the time. The Futuristic Rare turns up in about one pack in 100.
30th Celebration pull rates at a glance
These are the rates the counts point to, rounded to the figure each one is converging on. The observed rate is from the largest count, 4,063 packs.
| Rarity | Cards | Pull rate | Observed, 4,063 packs | Chance per pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu | 30 variants, #023–#052 | Every pack | Every pack | 100% |
| Double Rare | 12 cards, including Pikachu ex #053 and #054 | 1 in 4 | 1 in 4.0 | 25% |
| Illustration Rare | 18 cards, #129–#146 | 1 in 5 | 1 in 5.2 | 20% |
| Classic Collection | 30 reprints | 1 in 10 | 1 in 9.8 | 10% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 10 ex, #147–#156 | 1 in 20 | 1 in 18 | 5% |
| Futuristic Rare | Mewtwo ex #157, Mew ex #158 | 1 in 100 | 1 in 99 | 1% |
| RGB Mew | R, G and B /RGB, unlisted | Unknown | 1 in 4,063 | — |
The English set list prints everything above #128 as a Secret Rare. Collectors and price sites split that run in two. The alternate-art Pokémon at #129 to #146 are counted as Illustration Rares, and the ex cards at #147 to #156 as Special Illustration Rares. The split matters, because the two tiers pull at very different rates. The set page has every card in each group.
A Special Illustration Rare in one pack in 20 is roughly four times easier than in a standard Scarlet & Violet or Mega Evolution expansion. More of them are pulled, so each is worth less: the ten average $79.51 on TCGplayer today.
What is inside an English pack
Every English pack holds five foil cards, a foil Basic Energy and a Pokémon TCG Live code card. There are no non-foil cards in the set. The pack follows a fixed order, as recorded by the collector who logged the 4,063-pack count:
| Slot | What it holds |
|---|---|
| 1–2 | Main-set cards from two pools of 23 |
| 3 | A main-set card from a pool of 22, or an Illustration Rare or Classic Collection reprint in its place |
| 4 | The rare slot: a holo legendary, bumped up to a Double Rare, Special Illustration Rare or Futuristic Rare |
| 5 | One of the 30 Pikachu, every pack |
Because the Illustration Rare and Classic Collection share one slot while the ex tiers share another, a pack can hold two hits at once. An Illustration Rare in slot 3 and a Special Illustration Rare in slot 4 is possible. On that pattern a Special Illustration Rare and a Futuristic Rare should never share a pack, since both sit in slot 4.
About 43% of packs hold nothing beyond the Pikachu, in the 652-pack count that logged it. The other 57% have at least one Double Rare, Illustration Rare, Classic Collection reprint or better.
Four counts, one answer
No single count is proof, so here are four, run by different people over different packs. The rates line up. The only spread worth noting is on the Futuristic Rare, where the smaller counts had only four to eight pulls to go on.
| Rarity | 4,063 packs | ~800 packs | 652 packs | 420 packs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 1 in 4.0 | 1 in 4.4 | 1 in 4.6 | 1 in 3.6 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 5.2 | 1 in 5.6 | 1 in 5.4 | 1 in 5.0 |
| Classic Collection | 1 in 9.8 | 1 in 10.5 | 1 in 10.2 | 1 in 9.5 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 18 | 1 in 19.8 | 1 in 18.1 | 1 in 19.1 |
| Futuristic Rare | 1 in 99 | 1 in 100 | 1 in 82 (8 pulls) | 1 in 105 (4 pulls) |
Sources, left to right: a stream count compiled on Discord and published by Wargamer, the running tally on CardPrice, TCGtalk’s verified openings, and DigitalTQ. Each is linked in the method section. The 420-pack count classes the Double Rares more broadly, which is why its figure runs high.
Your odds in every product
English packs are not sold loose, so what you actually buy is a product. This table gives the chance of at least one card of each tier across all the packs in it, using the rates above. The promos inside each product are not counted.
| Product | Packs | Double Rare | Illus. Rare | Classic | SIR | FUR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Pack Blister, Knock Out Collection, Mini Tin | 2 | 44% | 36% | 19% | 10% | 2% |
| Tech Sticker or Poster Collection | 3 | 58% | 49% | 27% | 14% | 3% |
| Pokémon ex Box or ex Tin | 4 | 68% | 59% | 34% | 19% | 4% |
| Binder Collection | 5 | 76% | 67% | 41% | 23% | 5% |
| Booster Bundle | 6 | 82% | 74% | 47% | 26% | 6% |
| Ditto Premium Collection | 8 | 90% | 83% | 57% | 34% | 8% |
| Elite Trainer Box | 9 | 92% | 87% | 61% | 37% | 9% |
| Pokémon Center ETB | 11 | 96% | 91% | 69% | 43% | 10% |
| Ultra-Premium Collection (regular packs only) | 29 | >99% | >99% | 95% | 77% | 25% |
The Elite Trainer Box is the product most people will open. It gives you better-than-even odds of a Classic Collection reprint, a bit over one chance in three of a Special Illustration Rare, and about one in 11 of a Futuristic Rare. English boxes have no guaranteed hit: unlike a Japanese booster box, a nine-pack ETB can come out with nothing better than Pikachu and a Double Rare.
Half of collectors will have a Special Illustration Rare within 14 packs, and nine in ten within 45. For a Futuristic Rare the halfway point is 69 packs, about eight Elite Trainer Boxes, and nine in ten will have one by 229 packs.
Chasing one particular card
A tier rate is not the odds of the card you actually want. The Special Illustration Rare tier has ten cards, and the Japanese count of 57 boxes found its equivalent pool evenly weighted. That makes each specific SIR about 1 in 200 packs. The Futuristic tier holds only two cards, so Mew ex #158 or Mewtwo ex #157 on its own is also about 1 in 200. Half of those chasing one will need 138 packs or more.
| You want | Odds per pack | Packs to have a 50% chance | Market price today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mew ex #158 Futuristic | 1 in 200 | 138 | $112.58 · £84.36 |
| Mew ex #152 SIR | 1 in 200 | 138 | $158.36 · £118.66 |
| Gengar ex #154 SIR | 1 in 200 | 138 | $132.98 · £99.65 |
| Mewtwo ex #157 Futuristic | 1 in 200 | 138 | $75.36 · £56.47 |
| One specific Illustration Rare | about 1 in 90 | 62 | $10.14 average |
| One specific Pikachu | 1 in 30 | 21 | $1.98 average |
At the $5.55 a pack an Elite Trainer Box costs at MSRP, 200 packs is about $1,110 of product to expect one specific Special Illustration Rare. The single is $75 to $160. Opening for one named card never beats buying it. Prices are TCGplayer market prices on 23 September 2026; the price tracker updates them daily.
How many packs for all 30 Pikachu?
One Pikachu comes in every pack, but you cannot choose which. Assuming all 30 are equally common, completing the set from packs takes about 120 packs on average. The first 20 arrive quickly; the last few take most of the effort, because each new pack is more and more likely to repeat one you already have.
Nobody has published a per-Pikachu count large enough to show whether some variants are short-printed, so treat the equal-odds assumption as a starting point. Every Pikachu, its illustrator and its price is on the 30th Celebration Pikachu page.
Classic Collection cards are in regular packs
Before release it was widely expected that the 30 Classic Collection reprints would only come in the Classic Collection pack inside the Ultra-Premium Collection. They also turn up in ordinary booster packs, about one pack in 10, in all four counts. They take the place of a main-set card in slot 3.
Thirty designs sharing a one-in-10 slot makes any one reprint about 1 in 300 packs. The Classic Collection pack in the Ultra-Premium Collection, on sale from 6 November, is still the only product that guarantees them. Across the 652-pack count, Raikou, Scizor, Misty and Dark Tyranitar came up most often, but no reprint was pulled more than four times, which is too few to call any of them common. The full list of 30 is on the Classic Collection page.
RGB Mew: no reliable rate yet
The three unlisted RGB Mew, numbered R/RGB, G/RGB and B/RGB, are real pack pulls. They are too rare for any count to pin down. The 4,063-pack count found exactly one. Statistically, one pull in 4,063 packs is consistent with a true rate anywhere from 1 in 718 to 1 in 23,016. The one-in-20,000 figure that circulated in the first week has no published source. If the three colours are equally common, one specific colour is three times rarer than any RGB Mew.
English vs Japanese pull rates
The Japanese M6a booster box runs on fixed box-level rules; English packs are independent of each other. A count of 57 sealed Japanese boxes found:
| English | Japanese (M6a) | |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per pack | 5 foil + foil Energy | 6 foil |
| Top-tier ex art (SIR / SAR) | 1 in 20 packs, no guarantee | Exactly one per 20-pack box, in all 57 boxes |
| Classic Collection | 1 in 10 packs | Two per box in 16 of 17 logged boxes |
| Futuristic Rare | 1 in 100 packs | About 1 in 81 packs; 14 of 57 boxes |
| Packs with a hit | About 57%, varies | Nine per box in 15 of 17 boxes |
Per pack the two languages are almost the same: 1 in 20 against 1 in 20 for the top ex art. The difference is in variance. A Japanese box always delivers its Special Art Rare and two Classic reprints. Twenty English packs give you only a 64% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare, and a 39% chance of fewer than two Classic reprints. Japanese box pricing and numbering are on the set page.
Is opening 30th Celebration worth it?
Multiply each tier’s rate by its average market price and a pack is worth about $13 in pulls, around £10. That counts the Pikachu and the hit slots at today’s TCGplayer prices, and ignores the main-set bulk, the Energy and the code card.
| Tier | Rate | Average card | Value per pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu | Every pack | $1.98 | $1.98 |
| Double Rare | 1 in 4 | $2.28 | $0.57 |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 5 | $10.14 | $2.03 |
| Classic Collection | 1 in 10 | $36.59 (median $15.80) | $3.66 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 20 | $79.51 | $3.98 |
| Futuristic Rare | 1 in 100 | $93.97 | $0.94 |
| Total | $13.15 |
That leaves a clear line. At retail, $5.00 to $5.55 a pack or £49.99 for a nine-pack ETB, the expected pulls are worth more than twice what you paid. At today’s market prices they are not: an Elite Trainer Box is trading at $177.13, $19.68 a pack, and a loose pack pulled from a product at $17.04. If you can buy at MSRP, open. If you are paying resale, buy the singles you want.
Two caveats. The Classic Collection average is lifted by a handful of expensive reprints, which is why its median is less than half its mean. And an expected value is an average over hundreds of packs; any one ETB will land well above or below it. Every sealed price is in the 30th Anniversary product and price guide.
How these numbers were put together
There are no official pull rates. The official product pages confirm only the pack format: foil cards throughout, one Pikachu and one Basic Energy guaranteed. Every rate above is observed from openings, from these four counts:
- 4,063 English packs from live influencer streams, compiled by a collector on Discord and published by Wargamer on 17 September 2026. It is the source of the headline rates and the slot order.
- About 800 English packs from public opening logs, the running tally at CardPrice, as updated on 23 September 2026.
- 652 verified English packs across fourteen openings, from TCGtalk, which also logged the Pikachu-only packs and the individual Classic reprints.
- 420 English packs from DigitalTQ, which also sets out the card numbers in each tier.
The Japanese comparison comes from TCGtalk’s 57-box count. Product odds assume every pack is independent at the rates in the first table. Prices are TCGplayer market prices fetched on 23 September 2026, converted at $1 = £0.749. Stream openings can over-represent exciting packs if the dull ones are edited out, so treat the top tiers as close estimates rather than exact figures. This page will be updated as larger counts appear.
